da apostebet： The head-to-head statistics are strongly in favour of a South African win, but it’s a different story in the matches that matter
The Preview by Dileep Premachandran 09-Apr-2007
Loots Bosman could open the batting, with AB de Villiers batting in the middle order © Getty Images
Three days ago, South Africa were ranked No.1 in the world, the Guyanesesky was largely cloudless, and two points were expected to be there forthe taking against Bangladesh. Fast forward to Grenada though, and thepicture couldn’t be more different. The dismal 67-run defeat to Bangladeshhas not only cost them the top ranking – some would argue that they werenever as good as Australia anyway – but also made far more difficult their task of qualifying for the semi-finals.On paper, they can lose to West Indies and win against New Zealand andEngland to progress, but few South Africans will want to leave it to thelast, especially with New Zealand in such good form and Kevin Pietersencertain to up his game against former .There’s also the small matter of South Africa’s record in the big eventsand in pressure situations. The head-to-head statistics are strongly infavour of a South African win – 26 wins against 12 losses in 39 games -but it’s a different story in the matches that matter. West Indies havewon both their last two World Cup games, the 1996 quarter-final and theopening encounter of the 2003 competition, and also meted out punishmentsin recent Champions Trophy games [2004 and ’06].The last meeting was a drubbing in the Jaipur semi-final, with ChrisGayle’s magnificent strokeplay at the top of the order reducing achallenging pursuit to walk-in-the-park proportions. Shaun Pollock andMakhaya Ntini got a pasting that day, and will be wary, even though Gaylehas yet to find his bat’s sweet spot in this tournament.After strolling through their group games, West Indies have fallen awaydramatically, with the batsmen inconsistent and the support bowlers unableto replicate the sterling efforts of Daren Powell with the new ball. Evenmore damaging has been the failure of Gayle and Marlon Samuels to providethe offspin tourniquet that was such a part of their recent one-daysuccess.Some of the players went home after Sri Lanka handed down a third-successive Super Eights defeat more than a week ago, and the attitude ofthe team has come in for scathing criticism from some of the legends ofthe Caribbean game. “Even before that fatal game against Sri Lanka, theWest Indies’ practice session was something to behold, or perhaps not to,”said Colin Croft in a newspaper column. “It was lacklustre as ever, withplayers even complaining that the sun was hot. Are these people for real?”Criticism is something that South Africa took with them to Grenada after afrankly abysmal showing against Bangladesh. One minute, Andrew Hall beingstood down from the XI was a “tactical decision”, the next minute he wassuffering from a quadriceps problem – more spin than a White House mediarelease. With Herschelle Gibbs almost certain to miss out with a calfstrain, there are selection issues to ponder as well.The most likely scenario should see Loots Bosman opening with GraemeSmith, and AB de Villiers dropping into the middle order. Hall must be ashoo-in as well, with the run-less and wicket-less Justin Kemp making wayso that Andrè Nel’s pace and aggression can be unleashed for a secondmatch in succession.Mickey Arthur, the South African coach, spoke candidly about the loss to Bangladesh, but insisted that the pressure was on West Indies to deliver. “After the game the boyshurt a lot, which is a good thing,” he said, echoing what Smith had saidabout “taking our pain”. “We had a good chat about it and we’ve closed thedoor on Bangladesh. We realise that we still hold the key to our destinyin this competition. The pressure is going to be more on the West Indiesthan us.”No matches have been played at the National Cricket stadium in Grenada, and both camps expect a fair bit of assistance from a damp pitch in the morning. Winningthe toss and bowling will again be the mantra, and West Indies could lookto a three-pronged seam attack of Powell, Jerome Taylor and Ian Bradshaw.What is certain is that it’s last orders time at Last Chance Saloon. Thesituation isn’t quite as desperate yet for South Africa, though there willbe few tears shed in these parts if the hosts take a big step towardsknocking out one of the favourites. “South Africa can lose all theirremaining games and go home, complaining as they always do when theylose,” wrote Croft, perhaps irked by frankly ridiculous suggestions that’cabin fever’ had contributed to the Bangladesh loss.Ecclesiastes talks of “a time to heal” and “a time tobuild up”. Two teams for whom this appears to be a time to whinge would dowell to consider the resonance of those words.